Do Romney's "Tells" Reveal He Thinks He's Going To Lose?

Romney on Friday, in West Allis, Wisconsin. 
Keep an eye out at 3:36—note Romney's focus 
just before this, and repeated blinking right after.

Maybe Romney will win tomorrow. Maybe he will lose.

But what does the candidate really think about it?

In a campaign stop in Allis, Wisconsin on Friday, Romney at one point said the following:

"We thank you, and we ask you to stay at it all the way to the finish line. Because we're gonna win on Tuesday night.”

As he spoke those words to the appreciative audience in Romney's new "must-win" state of Wisconsin, he did it with a straight, unblinking, gaze, which looked as if the candidate meant what he said.

However, the moment he stopped speaking, Romney's lips pursed, and his eyes started blinking a bunch.

Right after saying he and Paul Ryan were going to win on Tuesday, Romney purses his lips, and starts heavy blinking. He had been unblinking in his assertion about victory—and this combination suggests he may have been lying. Romney has plenty of reason not to be confident about tomorrow's vote. But it seems he now believes he's going to lose.
According to studies on the relationship of eye blink rates and deception, often analyzed in relation to criminals and psychopaths, the following is observed:

"Liars displayed a reduction in blink rate during the target period [i.e., during the lie-telling], followed by an increase in blinking after the lie was told."

Why is this so? Researchers believe lying is more "cognitively demanding" than telling the truth. Thus, the liar is more focused on getting his story straight, and appearing confident. The increase in blinking afterward is a "compensatory effect"—i.e., to make up for having to stare like a zombie while you're lying.

So, is Romney getting ready to lose? His surrogates and conservative pundits are already spinning the "Sandy cost us the election" excuse. Romney's poll numbers were declining for a couple of weeks prior to the storm. And Romney had never made a solid impact in the key states, especially Ohio, Virginia, and Florida.

Obama can afford to lose all three in fact, and can still win—unless Romney can win Wisconsin. On the other hand, Romney is likely to lose Ohio, and may lose Virginia too. In that event, a lot of Republican pollsters and pundits are going to have a lot of explaining to do.

But, Romney's eyes and lips may already be revealing what he thinks is going to happen tomorrow.

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